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Author Topic: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?  (Read 284 times)

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Offline UNIFY(하나로 하다)

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Could Vietnam's GDP surpass any of these in 2025:

-Indonesia
-Thailand
-Philippines
-Brunei
-Malaysia
-Singapore

Offline gaden

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2020, 02:23:01 PM »
Gdp or gdp/ capita?

Offline UNIFY(하나로 하다)

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Offline Guess

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2020, 06:06:00 AM »
Look at this list. You’d have to look at growth projection, ect...for the current ppp, the closet to Vietnam is Philippines. The rest are way ahead of Vietnam.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-per-capita?continent=asia











Offline UNIFY(하나로 하다)

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2020, 08:14:57 AM »
Look at this list. You’d have to look at growth projection, ect...for the current ppp, the closet to Vietnam is Philippines. The rest are way ahead of Vietnam.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-per-capita?continent=asia

It's a shame how things are going so slowly for Vietnam. The other SEA countries will still be ahead of us when we catch up with the Philippines.








Offline Guess

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2020, 09:45:24 AM »
There are so many articles on economic projections, take with it a grain of salt. When you’re at the bottom, growth is fast bc you labor is cheap and raw material are abundant.  but at a point, without innovation and branching into high value products. you will lag.

If you take the example of compound interest 7% interest compounded annually double your money in 10 years. If you look at the chart vn ppp is 8377 China is 16000. So in order to catch up with China vn would need 7% growth rate consistently for 10 years and China has to have no growth.

This is world bank data you can look at the table for most ppp, example, China 16784, and Thailand 19228

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2019&start=2000

This is the table for gdp per cap growth rate

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locations=PH

2019, China growth is 5.7% Thailand 2.1%. Vietnam 6%. So assuming current trajectory, VN will never catch up with China. With Thailand, 21 years



Philippines closet ppp to Vietnam. Phili growth is 4.6%. VN income 8377, phili 9274. VN growth is 6%. So difference In Growth is 1.5% difference in income is VN is 12% less. So VN will catch up with phili 8-9 years.

So you can see here, the lower income has higher growth. VN has a shorter gap compared to phili but phili has high growth. Bigger gap with Thailand but tl has slower growth.

With just the examples above, the best scenario assuming current condition, VN will catch up with phili in 8-9 years.

Use this calculator: https://www.nerdwallet.com/banking/calculator/compound-interest-calculator






Offline Guess

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2020, 09:53:21 AM »
Could Vietnam's GDP surpass any of these in 2025:

-Indonesia
-Thailand
-Philippines
-Brunei
-Malaysia
-Singapore


So short answer to your question. None of the above.

Offline UNIFY(하나로 하다)

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2020, 10:50:56 AM »
So short answer to your question. None of the above.

Then Vietnam has to make their own economic journey. But even if they don't reach the same figures as other SEA countries, can Vietnam eventually be classified as a industrialized nation in a few years? Or do they have to reach the same numbers as the Philippines?

Offline Guess

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2020, 11:00:01 AM »
Then Vietnam has to make their own economic journey. But even if they don't reach the same figures as other SEA countries, can Vietnam eventually be classified as a industrialized nation in a few years? Or do they have to reach the same numbers as the Philippines?

That label is arbitrary but the Philippines considered newly indu.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/newly-industrialized-country.asp




Understanding Newly Industrialized Country
In the 1970s and 1980s, examples of newly industrialized countries included Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Examples in the late 2000s included South Africa, Mexico, Brazil, China, India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Turkey. Economists and political scientists sometimes disagree over the classification of these countries.




Drumpf

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2020, 12:42:24 PM »
Could Vietnam's GDP surpass any of these in 2025:

-Indonesia
-Thailand
-Philippines
-Brunei
-Malaysia
-Singapore


All you have to do is google it my dear chappie.

Offline UNIFY(하나로 하다)

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2020, 03:40:40 PM »
That label is arbitrary but the Philippines considered newly indu.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/newly-industrialized-country.asp




Understanding Newly Industrialized Country
In the 1970s and 1980s, examples of newly industrialized countries included Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Examples in the late 2000s included South Africa, Mexico, Brazil, China, India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Turkey. Economists and political scientists sometimes disagree over the classification of these countries.





When the metros are done and Long Thanh Airport is finished, at least we can fake outsiders to believe Vietnam is as developed as the other SEA countries  :p

But in a serious note, maybe Vietnam don't need to be industrialized. The country is not suitable for overwhelming manufacturing anyways. Agriculture will be the main economic drive for the forseeable future. Thanks for the information @Guess

Offline Guess

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2020, 04:52:40 PM »
When the metros are done and Long Thanh Airport is finished, at least we can fake outsiders to believe Vietnam is as developed as the other SEA countries  :p

But in a serious note, maybe Vietnam don't need to be industrialized. The country is not suitable for overwhelming manufacturing anyways. Agriculture will be the main economic drive for the forseeable future. Thanks for the information @Guess

why do you say that? Agriculture does not make you rich. Industry brings much higher value goods.

Offline UNIFY(하나로 하다)

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2020, 05:01:58 PM »
why do you say that? Agriculture does not make you rich. Industry brings much higher value goods.
I know that, but I just feel the conditions for a manufacturing industry in Vietnam is simply just not there. Or am I wrong?  -shrug

Offline Guess

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2020, 05:09:05 PM »
I know that, but I just feel the conditions for a manufacturing industry in Vietnam is simply just not there. Or am I wrong?  -shrug

it needs to be built. the problem b/w industrialized and agricultural is the growth of invention. That was how western Europe came out ahead. Vietnam needs to have a long term plan to recruit and encourage talents. Asian over all are not pioneers, they copy. Even then you can still go far.

That's why JP is into robotics, it's the new frontier. I just use this as an example. even simple things like making great nails/screws is a step up from exporting tons of rice. How about creating the best breeds of rice, or best breeds of coffee, etc...Even agricultural can be high tech.

Offline UNIFY(하나로 하다)

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2020, 05:11:34 PM »
it needs to be built. the problem b/w industrialized and agricultural is the growth of invention. That was how western Europe came out ahead. Vietnam needs to have a long term plan to recruit and encourage talents. Asian over all are not pioneers, they copy. Even then you can still go far.

That's why JP is into robotics, it's the new frontier. I just use this as an example. even simple things like making great nails/screws is a step up from exporting tons of rice. How about creating the best breeds of rice, or best breeds of coffee, etc...Even agricultural can be high tech.
Is there something vietnamese are good at? Maybe they should develope the agriculture to be highquality like you mentioned?

Offline Guess

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2020, 05:19:49 PM »
Is there something vietnamese are good at? Maybe they should develope the agriculture to be highquality like you mentioned?

yes, you realize america is better at practically everything? even wine. Italian wine used to be the best, now it's Cali wine.

 Since we like to eat and have the ones best cuisine in the world, something food related is good: like you say: rice. Maybe also fruits, tea, coffee, etc...

the new Refugees in america used to work in assembly line and do well at sewing too. So definately manufacturing is w/i VN's reach. Like I said, even creating quality small parts like screws, nails, or even techniques for manufacturing of clothes. the thing is you don't have to even make AI or spaceX to be ahead, just being able to make small improvement in common products.

Offline gaden

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2020, 02:48:50 PM »
How do they estimate economic growth projection?  Do they average the last 5 years of economic growth and apply that average figure to the next 5 year?  The problem with that it doesn't account for other developments and investments.  The new increase in manufacturing and FDI numbers probably won't show up until 1-2 years later when everything is set up and running.

Also, Vietnam is moving up in the value chain as high tech companies move in.  You have Samsung, Foxcon,  Google and Apple moving in already.  Apple was worried about the parts support supply chain but apparently some of the those small parts supplier has moved in Vietnam already.  Probably because they saw how Samsumg was established early in VN in the game.


Vietnam becomes a promise lands for foreign investors after the pandemic
https://vietnaminsider.vn/vietnam-becomes-a-promise-lands-for-foreign-investors-after-the-pandemic/

New job openings are for higher sophisticated jobs.

Quote
Apple’s recruitment information is posted on its official website and Linkedin, and the vacancies include engineers, managers in a number of parts such as software development, production quality control, sales, and supply chain, …

Offline Guess

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Re: Which of these SEA countries can and will Vietnam surpass in 5 years?
« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2020, 04:47:20 PM »
How do they estimate economic growth projection?  Do they average the last 5 years of economic growth and apply that average figure to the next 5 year?  The problem with that it doesn't account for other developments and investments.  The new increase in manufacturing and FDI numbers probably won't show up until 1-2 years later when everything is set up and running.

Also, Vietnam is moving up in the value chain as high tech companies move in.  You have Samsung, Foxcon,  Google and Apple moving in already.  Apple was worried about the parts support supply chain but apparently some of the those small parts supplier has moved in Vietnam already.  Probably because they saw how Samsumg was established early in VN in the game.


Vietnam becomes a promise lands for foreign investors after the pandemic
https://vietnaminsider.vn/vietnam-becomes-a-promise-lands-for-foreign-investors-after-the-pandemic/

New job openings are for higher sophisticated jobs.


Let’s hope VN can improve the manufacture quality. Their quality is still poor. Here’s their chance to prove to the world.

 
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