Author Topic: Another pipe dream by the communist goverment  (Read 87 times)

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Offline UNIFY(하나로 하다)

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Another pipe dream by the communist goverment
« on: January 20, 2021, 06:02:44 PM »
In September 2020, the Vietnamese government issued an action plan implementing Resolution No 23/NQ/TW, which sets out a national industrial policy until 2030 with a vision towards 2045. The resolution was first signed in March 2018.

What are the goals outlined in the policy, and how does Vietnam intend to accomplish these goals? We assess the current status of industrialization in the country, take a closer look at the contents of the national policy and action plan, and identify future opportunities and challenges.

What’s in the new industrial policy?
The action plan to implement the national industrial development policy contains six main goals:

By 2030, the industrial sector will make up over 40 percent of GDP, in which manufacturing and processing industries will account for 30 percent and the manufacturing industry alone account for 20 percent.

The value proportion of high-tech products from the manufacturing and processing industries will reach at least 45 percent.

The added value of industries will increase by over 8.5 percent annually on average, in which the growth rate of added value of manufacturing and processing will be 10 percent.

The average growth rate of labor productivity in the industrial sector will be 7.5 percent.

The Competitiveness Industrial Performance index will be among the top three ASEAN countries.

The workforce in industrial and service sectors will surpass 70 percent.
The action plan also outlines some solutions to achieve the above goals, including the introduction of policies to develop priority industries, create favorable environment for industries, develop businesses and a workforce for the industrial sector, leverage science, technology, and natural resources for industrial development, and clarifying responsibilities and improve the effectiveness of the State and local authorities.

To that regard, the action plan also designates specific responsibilities to different ministries.

With these specific targets, the Vietnamese government aims to speed up the country’s industrialization process.

That's not gonna happen. Their prediction for 2020 becoming industrialized failed miserably and have no base in reality. In order to reach the the goal they set, Vietnam GDP growth needs to be stable at 12% each year consistantly. Widespread corruption and the misuse of billions of funds from international donors will stop Vietnam from developing properly. In 2030, Vietnam will just set their foot in where the Philippines is today. In 2045, we'll be slightly better than today's Philippines. A 2030 Vietnam will look more modern than the Philippines from the outside, but for the ordinary citizen, they still will be trapped in middle-income.


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Re: Another pipe dream by the communist goverment
« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2021, 10:20:14 PM »
my prediction for Vietnam: 2040 finally catch up with Thailand in development but claims a GDP bigger than Japan. Under the revised GDP figure, Vietnam is now on par with the Philippines.  But if you compare Manila and Saigon, there are just far more development in Manila at the moment.  I don´t trust anything coming out of Thanh Nien News.

Offline UNIFY(하나로 하다)

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Re: Another pipe dream by the communist goverment
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2021, 01:00:15 PM »
I'm not so optimistic as long as the same peasants and their affiliates are running the country, nothing will change. I can almost smell the economic level of the Philippines by 2030, but the facade of Saigon and Hanoi will look more advanced. By 2045, Thailand even with their sluggish economic growth will be years ahead of Vietnam. Vietnam will likely reach Thailand as today in 2045.

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